🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."